1. Forex Market Insight
EUR/USD
EUR/USD dipped 0.52% yesterday, 12th April 2022, to trade at 1.0825 as markets turned their attention to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting scheduled for later this week, where markets may be looking for any signs that the ECB will scale back its asset purchase program.
Monetary policy aside, any rebound in the euro is likely to be limited due to Russia’s war on Ukraine.
As the war in Ukraine enters its second month, it has sent global food prices soaring, in addition to pushing up gasoline prices, as Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of commodities such as wheat and sunflower oil.
Unless the Ukrainian war is resolved, Europe’s economic outlook is really going to be a big question mark, which is not necessarily good for the flow of the euro.
Technical Analysis：
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
Execution Insight:
We focus on the 1.0890-line today. If the euro runs steadily below the 1.0890-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0832 and 1.0776. If the strength of the euro breaks above the 1.0890-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0940 and 1.0986.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
Fundamental Analysis：
Currently, the market is overpriced in raising interest rates by the Bank of England, putting the pound under tremendous pressure on the upside.
With the current cost of living crisis in the UK due to the impact of the pandemic, real disposable income is set to fall by the most on record this year (a phenomenon that occurred in the mid-1940s), which means the Bank of England could deflate the market’s high interest rate hike bets.
Technical Analysis：
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
Execution Insight:
The pound is mainly focused on the 1.2991-line today. If the pound runs above the 1.2991-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.3104 and 1.3186. If the pound runs below the 1.2991-line, it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1.2872-line.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold
Fundamental Analysis:
Gold prices touched $1978.5 per ounce yesterday, 12th April 2022, due to the stalemate in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Geopolitical concerns have increased the safe-haven demand for gold, and U.S. inflation recorded the largest increase in sixteen and a half years, of which also provided support for gold prices.
However, the hawkish speeches of the Fed officials continued and the dollar once again refreshed a nearly two-year high, which suppressed the gold prices.
Moreover, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada will also keep up with the pace of interest rate hikes, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. In this case, the bulls are still wary.
Technical Analysis：
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Trading Strategies:
Gold pays attention to the 1980-line today. If the gold price runs steadily below the 1980-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1961 and 1948 positions. If the gold price breaks above the 1980-line, it will open up further upward space, at that time, pay attention to the suppression strength of the 1992-line.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Fundamental Analysis:
The futures of crude oil rose $6.16, or 6.3%, to settle at $100.60 per barrel yesterday, 12th April 2022.
According to the latest monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, supply forecasts from outside OPEC were revised down by 33 million barrels per day, with Russian daily production now 530,000 barrels per day lower than previous estimation.
Furthermore, OPEC production increased by only 57,000 barrels per day to 28.56 million barrels per day in March, below the 253,000 barrels per day increase allowed under the OPEC+ agreement, oil prices rose on tight supplies.
Technical Analysis：
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Trading Strategies:
Oil prices focus on the 100.65-line today. If the oil price runs above the 100.65-line, then focus on the suppression strength of the 104.18 and 107.52 positions. If the oil price runs below the 100.65-line, then pay attention to the support strength of 98 and 95.05.
Disclaimer
While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this document, DOO Prime does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this information. DOO Prime does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly, from the use of this document. The material contained in this document is provided solely for general information and educational purposes and is not and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, securities, futures, options, bonds or any other relevant financial instruments or investments. Nothing in this document should be taken as making any recommendations or providing any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of financial instruments, any related products or any other products, securities or investments. Trading involves risk and you are advised to exercise caution in relation to the report. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their own financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision.
