1. Forex Market Insight
EUR/USD
Lagarde said that high inflation is unlikely to be entrenched, and that inflation will fall and could stabilize near the 2% target set by the ECB, so there is no need for the eurozone to take big steps to tighten monetary policy.
Although Lagarde reiterated that inflation faces upside risks, and warned that as the biggest driver of inflation, high oil prices may further pressure inflation, because they will erode household purchasing power.
However, she also pointed out that the eurozone economy has not suffered the kind of overheating that other countries are experiencing. The market is now expecting the European Central Bank to raise interest rates this year by about 50 basis points.
But economists are more cautious, most predict that the ECB’s first rate hike of 25 basis points will occur at the end of the year or early 2023.
Technical Analysis：
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
Execution Insight:
Today, we will pay attention to the support strength of the 1.1378-line. If the euro runs steadily above the 1.1378-line, we will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions above 1.1501 and 1.1535.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
Fundamental Analysis：
The unexpected surge in the U.S. non-farm payroll in January has sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve is accelerating the pace of interest rate hikes.
The evolution of policy expectations from the Fed and Bank of England have heightened uncertainty over the movements of the dollar and pound exchange rates. In addition, who will ultimately prevail, with the upcoming release of U.S. consumer price data this Thursday (Feb. 10) expected to be a key determinant.
Market surveys show that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in January is expected to rise 7.3% year-on-year, which will continue to hit a new high since 1982. The market currently expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in March, with the possibility of one-third chance.
Technical Analysis：
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
Execution Insight:
The pound is mainly focused on the 1.3522-line today. If the pound runs above the 1.3522-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the 1.3574 and 1.3669 positions. If the pound runs below the 1.3522-line, it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1.3450 and 1.3409 positions.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold
Fundamental Analysis:
Gold prices continued to rise yesterday, hitting a two-week high boosted by rising inflation concerns and Russia-Ukraine tensions, but gains in the dollar and U.S. stocks limited gains.
The main focus during the day would be on speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
Technical Analysis：
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Trading Strategies:
Gold pays attention to the 1812-line today. If the gold price runs steadily above the 1812-line, then it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the 1831 position. If the gold price falls below the 1812-line, it will open up further callback space. At that time, pay attention to the support strength of the 1804 and 1793 positions.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Fundamental Analysis:
Oil prices fell by more than 2% yesterday, falling below the 90 mark. The U.S. and Iran resumed indirect talks to possibly restart an international nuclear deal that would allow Iran, an OPEC member, to increase oil exports. At the same time, the EIA’s monthly report raised its crude oil production forecast, dragging oil prices lower.
Technical Analysis：
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Trading Strategies:
Oil prices focus on the 88.45-line today. If the oil price runs below the 88.45-line, then pay attention to the support of the 85.75-line. If the oil price runs above the 88.45-line, then pay attention to the suppression of the 91.64 and 93.21 positions.
Disclaimer
While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this document, DOO Prime does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this information. DOO Prime does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly, from the use of this document. The material contained in this document is provided solely for general information and educational purposes and is not and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, securities, futures, options, bonds or any other relevant financial instruments or investments. Nothing in this document should be taken as making any recommendations or providing any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of financial instruments, any related products or any other products, securities or investments. Trading involves risk and you are advised to exercise caution in relation to the report. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their own financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision.
