1. Forex Market Insight
EUR/USD
At some point, we will need to withdraw from the monetary and fiscal stimulus. And that exit will be difficult because it is subtractive rather than additive, said Pierre Wunsch, a member of the ECB Governing Council.
The theme now is exit, the path will not be smooth, inflation will be higher than our last forecast, and the statement about inflation being partly temporary is correct.
Inflation is only temporary, and we hope that the policy will work, and inflation will return to 2% at some point. This process will come faster than we thought 6 months ago.
Peter Kazimir, another ECB Governing Council member, said that for now, we are the finance minister’s best friend, but it certainly won’t last forever.
Technical Analysis：
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
Execution Insight:
Today, we will pay attention to the support strength of the 1.1554-line. If the euro falls below the 1.1554-line, it will open up further downside. With that, we will pay attention to the support strength of the 1.1501-line.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
Fundamental Analysis：
The British government said that the U.K. and the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have started preliminary negotiations on a free trade agreement to further strengthen the UK’s post-Brexit international trade position.
British International Trade Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan said the trade agreement with the GCC is a huge opportunity to liberalize trade in a growing market for British businesses and deepen relations with a region of vital strategic interest to the UK.
Technical Analysis：
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
Execution Insight:
The pound is focused on the suppressing strength of the 1.3669-line today. The lower end is focused on the supporting strength of the two positions of 1.3522 and 1.3409. Once the pound stands above the 1.3669-line, it will open up further upward space. At that time, pay attention to the suppression of the 1.3721-line.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold
Fundamental Analysis:
Yesterday, gold prices surged higher before giving back all of their gains. At one point during the day, gold prices rose by more than 1% on weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data.
As investors believe the Federal Reserve may still have enough reasons to wean the U.S. economy off its dependence on stimulus this year, the gold prices then retreated.
Technical Analysis：
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Trading Strategies:
Gold is still focused on the breakthrough direction of the range from 1745 to 1768 today. If it breaks above 1768, it will open up further upward space. At that time, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1782 and 1801. If it falls below the 1745-line, it will open up further downward space. At that time, pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1740 and 1724.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Fundamental Analysis:
Yesterday, U.S. oil ended up by $1.29, or 1.65%, to close at $79.59/barrel in late trading. The cumulative increase this week was 5.08%, marking the seventh consecutive weekly rise and the longest winning streak since December last year.
Brent oil rose by $0.63, or 0.77 percent, to close at $82.58 per barrel, a cumulative gain of 4.22 percent for the week. U.S. gasoline futures also closed at their highest level since October 2014.
OPEC+ producers remain tight on supply amid global energy crisis boosting demand, while the U.S. Department of Energy said no immediate action has been announced to lower prices, such as the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
This has further supported the oil market. Energy markets have tightened in the face of improving fuel demand, and many fear that a cold winter could further tighten gas supplies.
Higher oil prices have been spurred by soaring natural gas prices in Europe, which has prompted power generators to switch to using oil to generate electricity. There are many signs this week that supplies will remain constrained.
Technical Analysis：
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Trading Strategies:
Oil prices are focused on the middle rail of Bollinger Bands today, and oil prices are running above the middle rail of Bollinger Bands. Thus, they will maintain the operation idea of taking advantage of the trend and pay attention to the suppression of the two positions of 80 and 81.40 in turn.
Once the oil price falls below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, it will open up further downside. At that time, we will pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 76.89 and 75.69.
Disclaimer
While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this document, DOO Prime does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this information. DOO Prime does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly, from the use of this document. The material contained in this document is provided solely for general information and educational purposes and is not and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, securities, futures, options, bonds or any other relevant financial instruments or investments. Nothing in this document should be taken as making any recommendations or providing any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of financial instruments, any related products or any other products, securities or investments. Trading involves risk and you are advised to exercise caution in relation to the report. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their own financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision.
